NFL 2005 Week 3 Predictions

Oh man am I off to a bad start. Just 6 wins last week. Obviously a lot of teams are just not reading my script and playing like they are supposed to. I am comforted by the fact that nearly every commentator I read who also does picks is doing just as poorly. Peter King only had 4 right last week. Just keep plugging away.

Onto this week.

Falcons @ Bills
A key unknown in this game is Michael Vick. He is listed as questionable for the game. Neither team is exactly a downfield passing threat. For both teams it will be about running the ball on offense and smashing mouths on defense. The Bills have the better running back, but if Vick can play, he can make up for it. The Bills also have the better defense and will cause fumbles, especially from fumble-prone Vick if he plays. Prediction: Bills.

Bengals @ Bears
Who would have thunk it? This is a matchup of undefeated teams, and between two of the highest scoring teams in the league. The Bears field, I can't believe it, the most prolific offense in the NFC North division. The Bengals are bringing it with both barrels. They lead the league in total yards, are third in passing yards, and second in points scored. Neither team has given up many points on defense. (Somewhat misleading stat since the Bears have played the Redskins and the Bengals have played the Vikings, neither exactly a productive offense.) In the end, the Bengals go 3-0 because their defense will be able to hold down the Bear offense, which, while perhaps the best in the division, isn't all that good. Prediction: Bengals.

Jaguars @ Jets
The Marshall bowl. I imagine it's happened before, but an interesting side shows of this game is that both starting QBs are from the same college: Marshall. This one is tough to pick because it seems like such an even matchup. Both teams can run, throw, and defend. I guess I'll go with the home team. Prediction: Jets.

Raiders @ Eagles
Hmm. Randy Moss, he of faux moon fame. Terrell Owens, he of sharpie fame. Think there might be some competition as to who has the more audacious touchdown celebration? The Eagles are better on both sides of the ball. Raider QB Kerry Collins is good, but inconsistent. The Raider defense is good up front, but not in the secondary. McNabb will feast on them. Prediction: Eagles.

Titans @ Rams
Both teams can move the ball and score, but the Rams just have more to work with. Prediction: Rams.

Panthers @ Dolphins
The Panthers got back on track last week by dominating the Patriots. Fears about their defensive line's ability with Kris Jenkins out were eased by a strong showing last week. The Dolphins are the Dolphins again, after one week pretending they were someone else. Prediction: Panthers.

Browns @ Colts
Browns' coach Romeo Crennel has Peyton Manning's number. The one defense Manning has never had his way with are those in New England coached by Crennel. That was then, this is now. The Browns are a better offensive team than many thought. But the defense stinks. Like the Chiefs, the Colts have learned the beauty of playing defense, which is a good thing given the struggles the offense has had. Unbelievably, the Colt offense is ranked 20th in the league, while the Browns are an astonishing 4th, with the highest ranked passing game in the AFC. So far Dilfer is actually the better QB. Incredible. I hope Dilfer has enjoyed his run, because the Colts will destroy what defense the Browns can put up. Prediction: Colts.

Saints @ Vikings
This is a tough pick. I really want to go with the Vikings. On paper, they should be a much better team. But they are dismal so far this year, despite the talent. They actually have one of the worst offenses in the league. Only the Ravens and Texans have scored fewer points. The Vikings are near the bottom of the league in just about every offensive stat (30th in time of possession, 30th in points, 24th in total yards 30th in rushing yards). Culpepper leads the league in interceptions. All that can change in a heartbeat, of course, but so far they have shown nothing. The rebuilt defense is ranked 30th in the league, dead last against the run. More than that, as I wrote last year, the Vikings' biggest problem for the last couple of years has been that when the losing starts, the team can never right the ship and get it going again. Hence the back to back 3-7 finishes after promising starts. The Saints, despite all the problems because of Katrina, have played reasonably well this year. They feature a very good passing game and can pound away with the run, which they should against such a poor run defense. They play well on the road, a good thing for a team that will play all 16 on the road. They have a bit of a chip on their shoulders because of the travel, which will give them even more of an edge over a tentative Viking team trying to find its way. Prediction: Saints.

Bucs @ Packers
The Bucs are looking like a team that won a Super Bowl in the not too distant past. Strong defense, power running, good passing. So far, they are good all around. The Packers are terrible. They have scored more points than the division rival Vikings, but then who hasn't. Atrocious defense, lousy running, and injuries. Favre isn't playing that badly. He is certainly better than the other QBs in the division, but again, who isn't. But he can't do it all, and with Walker out for the season and Franks questionable for the game, he won't even get close. Prediction: Bucs.

Cowboys @ 49ers
This used to be the premier matchup in the NFL. That was 12 or so years ago. Nowadays, the 49ers are pushovers and the Cowboys are pretty good and should be 2-0. Well, they will be 2-1 after this week. Prediction: Cowboys.

Cardinals @ Seahawks
I predicted the Cards to win the division, and they are 0-2. Warner is doing his part (the Card passing game is ranked higher than New England's), but without a running game, the passing yardage isn't going to translate to the touchdowns hoped for. The Card running game is virtually non-existent, barely better than the Vikings'. The Seahawks can pound away at Arizona's 20th ranked run defense. The only question is, can they do it for 4 quarters, or will they quit at three? Prediction: Seahawks.

Patriots @ Steelers
The premier matchup of this week. The two teams met twice last season. In the regular season, the Steelers ended the Patriots' record setting winning streak. In the AFC title game, the Patriots reminded everyone who was boss in the AFC. The Steelers are hitting on all cylinders this year. They feature one of the top offenses in the game, rivaling the Bengals in potency. Willie Parker is a rising star, enough to keep Bettis and Staley on the bench even if they were healthy. The defense has destroyed the opposition. Granted they haven't face great opposition. On the other hand, the Patriots have question marks around their running game and their offensive line. Last week, they committed numerous penalties. While Brady's passing is as effective as ever, he got harassed a lot by the Panthers and you can expect the Steelers to do more of the same. They need an effective running game to keep the pressure off Brady and allow him to make more completions. The Pats haven't lost back to back games since 2002 (easy to do when you go 14-2 all the time) and are always dangerous. But until the Patriots get the kinks worked out, Pittsburgh just brings too much to the table in its balanced offense and intimidating defense. Prediction: Steelers.

Giants @ Chargers
This is a surprise matchup. Many would have expected one would be undefeated and the other winless, but few would have thought it would the Giants who were undefeated. The Chargers have lost two close games, both in the closing minutes. The Giants have feasted on weaker opposition. I'm still not impressed with them. San Diego is much better than their 0-2 record would indicate, so I'll pick them. Prediction: Chargers.

Chiefs @ Broncos
The Chiefs are one of the big surprises in the young season. While everyone knew they could put up points with the best of them, what's surprising is that they have developed the ability to stop their opponents by playing defense. The Broncos will need a consistent A-game from the whole team, which is something Shanahan rarely gets nowadays. Plummer will make his usual share of impressive passes, and his usual share of mistakes. The Chief defense will cope with the former and make Denver pay dearly for the latter. Prediction: Chiefs.

Last week: 6-10
Season: 13-19